A Bayesian Statistics and Data Science Blog

An Introduction to Being Less Wrong

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing and Model Averaged Marginal Effects for the Social Sciences

R

Bayesian Statistics

Statistics

Marginal Effects

Stan

Logit

Model Averaging

This post provides an introduction to Bayesian Model Averaging and Model Averaged Marginal Effects with Stan, {brms}, and {marginaleffects}

December 31, 2022

These Are Not the Effects You Are Looking For

The Fallacy of Mutual Adjustment and How to Avoid It

R

Bayesian Statistics

Causal Inference

Regression

Stan

Simulation

This blog post provides an overview of the logic of statistical control, the fallacy of mutual adjustment, and a simulation-based illustration of correct and incorrect approaches to the interpretation of multivariable regression models in the social sciences.

December 23, 2022